quick takes 1: the ohtani trade question

reality, prove me wrong

I have been interested in keeping track of my predictions lately. I’m inspired by the idea Matthew Yglesias to make predictions, assign them a percentage of coming true, and then check back later. So I’m going to start doing this on my blog.

Each prediction or “take” is going to have a few basic components.

1. A statement that can be reasonably verified as true or false

2. A time limit

3. A percentage

My first quick takes, or QTs, are about Angels Pitcher/DH Shohei Ohtani.

I believe that:

1. Shohei Ohtani will not re-sign with the Angels this offseason (80% chance)

2. Shohei Ohtani will not re-sign with the Angels this offseason EVEN IF the Angels make the playoffs (70% conditional on Angels making playoffs; note I am not predicting whether the Angels will make the playoffs and this QT applies only if they do)

3. Shohei Ohtani will not re-sign with the Angels this offseason EVEN IF the Angels win the World Series (55%)

4. The Angels will not trade Ohtani before the July 31st trade deadline (95%)

5. The decision not to trade Ohtani this deadline will be generally regarded as a mistake on top tier baseball podcasts (FanGraphs, Rates and Barrels, Baseball Tonight) within a year (65%)

6. The Angels will be much worse next year than this year, defined as winning 10 less games overall (70%)

As you can guess, I think the Angels should trade Ohtani now. But alas.