quick takes 5: caruso edition
I love pre-registering takes and following up on them later, particularly about sports. The last one I did was about the Philadelphia 76ers. This one is about the Josh Giddey-Alex Caruso trade.
The first big trade of the 2024 NBA offseason saw the Oklahoma City Thunder sending 21 year old point guard Josh Giddey to the Chicago Bulls in exchange for defense-first guard Alex Caruso. The trade was straight up: Giddey plays for the Bulls, Caruso plays for the Thunder.
When I first heard this, I assumed OKC would be getting picks. However, the online consensus seems to be that Chicago should have gotten picks. So I want to pre-register some takes that I think Chicago got the better end of the deal which seems to be against the popular consensus at the moment.
My basic reasoning is that Giddey, at 21, is an ~80th percentile offensive player according to EPM who showed substantial improvement last year even though he still needs to develop a shot. I think a bad outcome for his career is a 6th man that runs the offense of the second unit of a good team. And a good outcome for his career is something like making 4 or 5 all star teams.
On the other hand, Caruso is 30 years old and unquestionably one of the best defenders in the league. EPM has him as one of the handful of best defenders in the league over the last four years, despite his offensive numbers being middling.
I think Caruso makes a ton of sense for this OKC team, and I think he makes their team better right now than Giddey. I think from this perspective, the trade was very good for OKC. They traded from a position of overabundance (ballhandling) into something they were not as good at (guard defense). Giddey was a poor fit because he needs the ball and was fourth in line to touch the ball behind Shai, Jdub, and Chet. Caruso does not need the ball and can anchor their defense by himself. He will be good for several more years at least.
So let’s get to specific takes
Measured by EPM and/or BasketballReference’s VORP, Caruso will be the better player next year (60%)
Measured by EPM and/or BasketballReference’s VORP, the total wins above replacement delivered by Giddey during the remainder of his career will be larger than Caruso’s (90%)
Giddey will make at least one all-star team in his career (70%)
I’m not sure how to assess this, but in like 5 years the consensus will be that the Bulls got the better end of this trade (60%)
Anyway, that’s it. The basketball offseason is off to an exciting start!